January 2026 - The 2026 Base Case, and Why We Don’t Rely on It
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January 2026 - The 2026 Base Case, and Why We Don’t Rely on It
Dear Investors and Friends, Each January, markets are flooded with forecasts. Growth, inflation, interest rates, stocks, bonds, all wrapped into neatly packaged “base cases.” This …
January 05, 2026
December 2025 - Why QE in a Strong Economy? Understanding the Fed’s New Challenge
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December 2025 - Why QE in a Strong Economy? Understanding the Fed’s New Challenge
Dear Investors and Friends, After our November letter, several readers asked an important and very reasonable question: Why would the Federal Reserve even consider quantitative eas…
December 17, 2025
November 2025 - When Liquidity Returns Before It’s Needed
November 2025 - When Liquidity Returns Before It’s Needed
Dear Investors and Friends, For most of the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been shrinking its balance sheet through quantitative tightening, allowing bonds to mature witho…
November 14, 2025